New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) major players on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement and interest rate decision

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) major players on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement and interest rate decision

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) major players on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement and interest rate decision

The New Zealand Dollar is trading in a tight range against the U.S. Dollar for a second straight session on Tuesday. With most of the major players on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement and interest rate decision on Wednesday, the currency is posting an inside move, which typically indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

The Kiwi has been under pressure since July 19 as traders have been pricing in a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for August 6. Traders also expect the Fed to trim its benchmark rate by 25-basis points. However, the main interest for investors will be the guidance offered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting press conference.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.67.

The projected upper bound is: 0.67.

The projected lower bound is: 0.65.

The projected closing price is: 0.66.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.5347. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 48 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -134.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.662. Volume was 29% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.663 0.663 0.660 0.662 26,040
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.67 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 9 9 10
Volume: 30,710 35,860 42,738

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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