New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) lowest level in 10 years
Today, AUD/USD resumed bearish price action after breaking below the level discussed in our last update. Later, the price pressed below the Aug 7 low (monthly support) at 0.6677 printing its lowest level in 10 years at 0.6672. Similarly, NZD/USD printed 0.6203 – its lowest level in 10 years.
Since Sep 24, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been leaning to the downside highlighting the bearish outlook of both pairs.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.
The projected upper bound is: 0.63.
The projected lower bound is: 0.62.
The projected closing price is: 0.62.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.7372. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -125.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.000 at 0.624. Volume was 90% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 7% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.625 0.625 0.624 0.624 3,575
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.63 0.64 0.66
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 30,199 32,227 38,410
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 6.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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