New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) lower prices expected

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) lower prices expected

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) lower prices expected

This currency pair printed a bearish inside candlestick at the end of last week, making its lowest weekly close in almost 4 years. The candlestick closed right on its low which is a bearish sign, and the NZD is more bearish than the AUD. These are all signs that next week is likely to produce still lower prices in this pair.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.66.

The projected upper bound is: 0.65.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.1182. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.000 at 0.642. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 63% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.643 0.644 0.642 0.642 229
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.65 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 8 9 9
Volume: 33,772 35,379 41,590

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 4.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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