New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) likely being supported by upbeat comments about a trade deal over the week-end
The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher early Monday with the currency likely being supported by upbeat comments about a trade deal over the week-end. United States national security adviser Robert O’Brien said on Saturday that an initial trade agreement with China is still possible by the end of the year, but warned Washington would not turn a blind eye to what happens in Hong Kong.
Ahead of the week-end, Gao Feng, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman said, “external rumors” about a trade talk snag are not accurate, and noted the two trade delegations remain in close communication.
Shortly afterwards, there was a report that China invited the U.S. trade delegation to Beijing for face-to-face talks. President Trump then told Fox News both sides were “very close,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping told a visiting U.S. business delegation that China holds a “positive attitude” toward the trade talks.
Putting a lid on the Kiwi were comments from the RBNZ and the RBA last week which traders took to suggest both are more dovish than previously thought.
RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby reiterated that the economy was in good shape but the Bank was prepared to ease again if needed. Hawkesby highlighted the importance of the global outlook to the Bank’s policy deliberations.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since mid-November when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised investors by putting an expected rate cut on hold.
The main trend will change to up on a trade through .6466. A move through .6322 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The short-term range is .6466 to .6322. Its retracement zone at .6411 to .6394 is providing support.
The main range is .6204 to .6466. Its retracement zone at .6335 to .6304 is major support. This zone stopped the selling on November 8 at .6322.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.
The projected upper bound is: 0.65.
The projected lower bound is: 0.63.
The projected closing price is: 0.64.
Candlesticks
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.4087. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 45 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.000 at 0.641. Volume was 26% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.641 0.643 0.639 0.641 23,441
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.64 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 10 8 9
Volume: 26,047 30,599 35,637
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX NZD= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 31 periods.
