New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Job Data Within Expectations

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Job Data Within Expectations

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Job Data Within Expectations

NZD/USD has posted small losses in Wednesday trade.

New Zealand Job Data Within Expectations

There were no surprises from New Zealand’s employment numbers for the third quarter. The numbers were weaker in the Q3, as the U.S.-China trade war and weaker global demand continue to weigh on the New Zealand economy. Employment change posted a weak gain 0.2%, after a strong release of 0.8% in Q2. Still, this matched the forecast. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, up from 3.9%. This was a shade above the estimate of 4.1%.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

NZD/USD has lost ground for a third successive day, as the pair appears to be in a downtrend. There is strong pressure on support at 0.6360, and I expect this line to be tested before the end of the week. I continue to monitor the 50-EMA, which is at 0.6370, very close to the pair. If the pair breaks above this line, it could be a sign of a trend reversal. In the meantime, the situation remains fluid, so I would counsel patience until we have a better idea of which direction NZD/USD is headed. On the upside, there is resistance at 0.6490, protecting the symbolic round number of 0.6500.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.64.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.5335. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 32 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.637. Volume was 6% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.637 0.639 0.636 0.637 30,816
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.64 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 31,107 31,226 36,689

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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