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New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) has been hit by weak global conditions and U.S-China trade war


New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) has been hit by weak global conditions and U.S-China trade war

NZD/USD ended the week on a whimper and the lack of activity has continued on Monday. In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.6385, up 0.02% on the day.

Ahead – Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence has dipped, as the New Zealand economy has been hit by weak global conditions and U.S-China trade war. We’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Sentiment, a quarterly release, later on Monday. In Q1, the indicator dipped to 103.5, as it slowed for a second straight month. Another drop could sour risk appetite and send weigh on the NZ dollar.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

NZD/USD continues to be exhibit range trade, as the pair is showing little inclination to break out in either direction. On the upside, 0.6425 is immediate resistance. This line was active last week and remains relevant. There is support at 0.6325, which has held since September 3. The pair leveled out on Friday and has shown little enthusiasm at the start of the week. I do not expect any significant movement on Monday.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.64.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.63.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 4.3046. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed unchanged at 0.634. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 33% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.634 0.634 0.634 0.634 228
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.64 0.65 0.67
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 24,045 32,620 38,986

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX NZD= is currently 4.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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