New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) experienced their worst days in years

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) experienced their worst days in years

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) experienced their worst days in years

The rally on Wall Street paused after the S&P 500 halted its 5-day winning streak and closed lower 0.22%. Pessimism in investors started building up earlier in the day on disappointing German economic data. Factory orders contracted 7.0% y/y in December versus 6.7% expected, the largest decline since June 2012. The Euro declined given that the ECB is facing another obstacle, the largest EU economy slowing.

The pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars had one of their worst days since 2016 and 2017 respectively. Their moves had more to do with monetary policy fundamentals though. AUD/USD tumbled as RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe shifted away from favoring a hike as their next move,underscoring increasing dovish policy bets. NZD/USD declined on a worse-than-expected domestic jobs report.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.66.

The projected closing price is: 0.67.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.2364. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.01. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 58 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed down -0.002 at 0.675. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.677 0.678 0.674 0.675 42,160

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.68
Volatility: 14 10 10
Volume: 45,147 47,072 51,377

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 0.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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