New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Expected Change Weekly Trend to Down
Rising U.S. Treasury yields and weaker-than-expected domestic data weighed on the New Zealand Dollar last week. The price action suggests the selling is likely to continue early this week.
Treasury yields were driven sharply higher by stronger-than-expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product data, which helped raise the odds of at least one rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the year. On the data front, New Zealand Retail Sales data beat the forecast, but the Trade Balance deficit came in much higher than expected.
For the week, the NZD/USD settled at .6799, down 0.0051 or -0.74%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.5914. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 74 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.001 at 0.680. Volume was 0% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.680 0.684 0.679 0.680 48,440
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.67
Volatility: 10 10 11
Volume: 45,301 44,573 50,581
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 0.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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