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Monday, September 20, 2021

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) downside targets are the minor bottom at .6456 and the main bottom at .6424

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) downside targets are the minor bottom at .6456 and the main bottom at .6424

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next downside targets are the minor bottom at .6456 and the main bottom at .6424.

The main trend will change to up on a move through .6939. This is highly unlikely however. The NZD/USD is down nine weeks since its last main top so traders should start watching for a counter-trend closing price reversal bottom.

The minor top is .6784. A trade through this level will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is .6424 to .6970. Its retracement zone at .6633 to .6697 is resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the NZD/USD.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s low at .6513.

Bearish Scenario

Taking out .6513 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is an uptrending Gann angle at .6504. If this angle fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at .6456, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at .6464. This is the last potential support angle before the .6424 main bottom. If .6424 is taken out with conviction then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next main bottom at .6346.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above .6513 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the downtrending Gann angel at .6579, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at .6584. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the Fibonacci level at .6633.

Closing Price Reversal Bottom Set-Up

Taking out .6513 then recovering last week’s close at .6514 will put the NZD/USD in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed this could lead to a 2 to 3 week counter-trend rally. The chart pattern is not likely to lead to a change in trend, but it will indicate the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.67.

The projected upper bound is: 0.66.

The projected lower bound is: 0.64.

The projected closing price is: 0.65.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.4625. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -121.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.001 at 0.653. Volume was 31% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.653 0.655 0.652 0.653 28,846

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.66 0.67 0.67
Volatility: 5 8 10
Volume: 34,893 38,966 47,138

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX NZD= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods.

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