New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) continues to drift sideways
The New Zealand Dollar continues to drift sideways to lower nearly two week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stunned the financial markets by cutting interest rates a steep 50 basis points and even indicated it may be willing to take rates below zero. The news drove the Kiwi to three-and-a-half year lows.
We could see some movement in the Forex pair later in the session with the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its July 30-31 meeting. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last month, citing “global developments” and “muted inflation.” The Fed minutes are scheduled for release Wednesday at 18:00 GMT.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.65.
The projected upper bound is: 0.65.
The projected lower bound is: 0.63.
The projected closing price is: 0.64.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.9312. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 28.82. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -112.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed up 0.000 at 0.640. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.640 0.640 0.640 0.640 261
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.64 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 4 9 9
Volume: 27,288 34,579 41,028
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 4.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that NZD= is currently in an oversold condition.