New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Buyers Aren’t Straying Far From 0.8500

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Buyers Aren’t Straying Far From 0.8500

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) Buyers Aren’t Straying Far From 0.8500

From the daily chart, we notice on Aug 15 NZD/USD declined to a lower trading zone 0.6236 – 0.6438. Since then, buyers failed in multiple occasions to push the price to the higher zone.

On Nov 8, the pair rallied before testing the low end of the zone then created the right shoulder of inverted head and shoulders pattern, where the neckline resides on the high end of current trading zone. This suggests, if NZDUSD breaks and remains above the high end, the price could rally towards 0.6565 then 0.6642. Nevertheless, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be monitored.

On the flip-side, any failure in closing above the high end of the zone would signal buyer’s pullout of the market, and could send NZDUSD towards the low end of the zone. That said, the daily and weekly support levels underlined on the chart should be kept in focus.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.

The projected upper bound is: 0.65.

The projected lower bound is: 0.63.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.0466. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 41 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.003 at 0.643. Volume was 22% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.640 0.643 0.638 0.643 24,943
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.64 0.63 0.66
Volatility: 10 9 9
Volume: 26,908 30,557 35,949

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of NZD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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