New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) builds support from key Fibonacci
NZD/USD continues to show evidence of having bottomed. Last week I looked at the initial build of a falling wedge pattern and this led to a continued test of support at the .6403 Fibonacci level, which is the 61.8% marker of the 2008-2011 major move in the pair. This can open the door to bullish reversal potential, initially targeting .6450, followed by a re-test of the area around .6500.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.66.
The projected upper bound is: 0.65.
The projected lower bound is: 0.63.
The projected closing price is: 0.64.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.0104. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.67. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -100. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX NZD= closed down -0.000 at 0.641. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.641 0.641 0.641 0.641 305
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.64 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 5 9 9
Volume: 28,747 34,784 41,228
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX NZD= is currently 4.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that NZD= is currently in an oversold condition.