New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) breaches 2019 support shelf, challenging 2018 bottom

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) breaches 2019 support shelf, challenging 2018 bottom

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD (NZD=X) breaches 2019 support shelf, challenging 2018 bottom

The New Zealand Dollar extended lower after breaking the bounds of the upswing from mid-June, pushing below the support shelf in the 0.6482-96 area to challenge the October 2018 low at 0.6425. A daily close underneath that exposes the January 2016 bottom at 0.6348 next.

Alternatively, a move back above 0.6496 – now recast as resistance – opens the door for another test of the 0.6559-91 congestion region. The overall trend bias looks decidedly bearish absent a breach of resistance guiding the broader downtrend since July 2017, now within a hair of the 0.68 figure.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.66.

The projected upper bound is: 0.65.

The projected lower bound is: 0.64.

The projected closing price is: 0.64.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.3988. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -100. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX NZD= closed up 0.001 at 0.645. Volume was 3% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 104% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.645 0.647 0.642 0.645 37,194
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.65 0.66 0.67
Volatility: 9 9 9
Volume: 40,154 36,456 42,129

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX NZD= is currently 4.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of NZD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on NZD= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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