Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) Takes Pole Position in the Oscars Race

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) Takes Pole Position in the Oscars Race

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) Takes Pole Position in the Oscars Race

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) has long been known as a Hollywood disruptor, but the disruption may now be complete.

The 2020 Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the leading streamer took home more than any other studio, garnering 24 nods, up from 15 a year ago. 

That compared to 20 for Sony, 17 for Walt Disney (or 23, including Fox Searchlight’s six), 12 for AT&T’s (NYSE: T) Warner Bros., and 11 for Comcast’s Universal.  No other studio had more than 10.

The news comes after a poor showing for Netflix at the Golden Globe Awards: Despite a slew of nominations, the streamer won just two awards. But the company’s Oscar campaigning appears to have paid off. “The Irishman” and “Marriage Story” nabbed two of the nine nominations for Best Picture, and the company has at least one candidate up for every major award. Investors cheered the news, sending the stock up 3% on Monday.

While Netflix would like to win as many awards as it can, especially Best Picture, just coming in tops in nominations is a major victory in its own right and a validation of the company’s strategy in a number of ways.

Raising the bar

Most importantly, Netflix scored nominations across a wide variety of genres. While nominations for “The Irishman,” “Marriage Story” and “The Two Popes” were largely anticipated and will get the most attention, Netflix also scored Best Documentary nominations for “American Factory” and “The Edge of Democracy.”  It also took two of the nominations for Best Animated Feature with “Klaus” and “I Lost My Body,” and one in Best Documentary Short for “Life Overtakes Me.”

No other studio, let alone streamer, has the breadth to win multiple nominations for Best Picture, Best Documentary, and Best Animated Film. Netflix has at times been criticized for trying to offer something for everyone, but the range of categories in which it earned nominated shows that the results of that strategy are resonating with Hollywood’s tastemakers.

It’s also worth remembering that movies are something of a secondary focus for Netflix. Most of the company’s budget — and most of the time its viewers spend with it — goes to television series, and Netflix has also made its presence felt at the Emmys, where it has competed with HBO to bag the most nominations over the past few years. Again, no other studio, and definitely no other streaming service, has had so much success in both television and film. 

Finally, Netflix’s nomination haul is a stamp of approval for the Netflix model itself as the company has mostly resisted screening its movies in theaters, instead choosing to reward its subscribers. Though it has to show movies in theaters in order for them to qualify for the Oscars, Netflix has rejected the traditional “windowing” process, under which studios agree to wait a certain period of time after a movie is released in theaters before it’s made available to view at home. Netflix’s refusal to window its movies has sparked criticism from the likes of Steven Spielberg and others in the Hollywood establishment, but the industry largely appears to have gotten over its qualms.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 355.66.

The projected lower bound is: 324.57.

The projected closing price is: 340.12.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.5845. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 107.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

NETFLIX INC closed up 0.380 at 339.070. Volume was 33% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
338.680 343.170 336.600 339.070 5,076,211
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 334.29 312.91 323.52
Volatility: 35 32 39
Volume: 5,367,601 5,739,182 7,162,881

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

NETFLIX INC is currently 4.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into NFLX.O (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on NFLX.O and have had this outlook for the last 64 periods.

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