NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) May Give Back Ground Amid Uncertainty About Trade Talks
Stocks are likely to move to the downside in early trading on Monday, giving back ground following the rally seen last Friday. The major index futures are currently pointing to a lower open for the markets, with the Dow futures down by 52 points.
Lingering concerns about the ongoing U.S.-China trade war may weigh on the markets ahead of the next round of high-level trade talks in Washington later this week.
Ahead of the talks, scheduled to begin on Thursday, a report from Bloomberg News said Chinese officials are signaling they’re increasingly reluctant to agree to the broad trade deal being pursued by President Donald Trump.
Citing people familiar with the discussions, Bloomberg said senior Chinese officials have indicated the range of topics they’re willing to discuss has narrowed considerably.
An offer from Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would purportedly not include reforming Chinese industrial policy or government subsidies.
The upcoming negotiations come as the trade war continues to hang over the economy, with a survey by the National Association for Business Economics showing 53 percent of economists see trade policy as the key downside risk to the economy.
The NABE said four out of five panelists believe that risks to the economic outlook are weighted to the downside, an increase from the 60 percent who held this view in June.
“The panel turned decidedly more pessimistic about the outlook over the summer, with 80% of participants viewing risks to the outlook as tilted to the downside,” said Survey Chair Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
He added, “The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to U.S. economic activity.”
Late in the trading day, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its report on consumer credit in the month of August. Consumer credit is expected to climb by $15.5 billion in August after jumping by $23.3 billion in July.
Following the significant rebound seen over the course of the trading day last Thursday, stocks showed another substantial move to the upside during trading last Friday. With the rally, the major averages further offset the steep losses posted last Tuesday and Wednesday.
The major averages finished the session just off their best levels of the day. The Dow soared 372.68 points or 1.4 percent to 26,573.72, the Nasdaq surged up 110.21 points or 1.4 percent to 7,982.47 and the S&P 500 spiked 41.38 points or 1.4 percent to 2,952.01.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,991.35.
The projected upper bound is: 8,247.19.
The projected lower bound is: 7,650.44.
The projected closing price is: 7,948.82.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.3820. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 87 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
NASDAQ COMPOSITE closed down -26.180 at 7,956.294. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 12% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,954.56 8,000.84 7,726.50
Volatility: 21 24 22
Volume: 526,226,176 557,935,936 571,151,296
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE is currently 3.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .IXIC at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .IXIC and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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