NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) ends at 6-month high ahead of big-name earnings
U.S. stocks closed mostly stronger Monday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq finishing at a six-month high, as investors face a big week for corporate quarterly results and economic data following an extended holiday weekend. Investors were also monitoring a jump in crude-oil prices as the U.S. said it would end waivers for countries that import Iranian crude.
Sentiment is cautious as investors await earnings reports from some of the largest and most consequential U.S. companies later this week, said Shayne Heffernan, CEO and Founder of Heffx.
“There’s not really a need to go out there and trade the market aggressively in face of the company-specific data coming soon and the GDP data coming later this week,” he said. “People are sitting on their hands and watching a bit.”
“With the S&P 500 forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio sitting near highs of 16.8 and the index 1.2% below its historic record, investors need convincing results to keep buying equities at their current levels,” said Shayne Heffernan.
“The Federal Reserve has limits on what it can do to tighten monetary policy, and loosening policy may not happen unless we see serious signs of declining inflation, which is not the case at the moment. That’s why a disappointment in results this week may lead to a sharp correction in equity prices,” said Shayne Heffernan.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,652.21.
The projected upper bound is: 8,188.51.
The projected lower bound is: 7,871.09.
The projected closing price is: 8,029.80.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with NASDAQ COMPOSITE), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.5642. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.25. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
NASDAQ COMPOSITE closed up 17.205 at 8,015.266. Volume was 25% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,974.46 7,677.19 7,513.45
Volatility: 6 13 25
Volume: 494,891,552 571,024,640 573,133,440
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE is currently 6.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .IXIC (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .IXIC and have had this outlook for the last 70 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that .IXIC is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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