NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) bucks trend to rise for 5th day

NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) bucks trend to rise for 5th day

NASDAQ Composite (.IXIC) bucks trend to rise for 5th day

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower Thursday as disappointment over weak retail sales overshadowed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks, but the Nasdaq eked out gains to rise for a fifth session in a row.

Consumer staples and financial sectors were the biggest losers, both falling more than 1%.

How did major benchmarks fare?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.41% fell 103.88 points, or 0.4%, to 25,439.39, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.27% shed 7.30 points, or 0.3%, to 2,745.73. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.09%  edged up 6.58 points to 7,426.95.

What drove the market?

Investors were caught off guard by a report showing that U.S. retail sales fell by 1.2% in December, the largest single-month decline since 2009 and well below the flat growth expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. That came at the same time that jobless claims showed an unexpected rise in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits.

Stock-index futures had risen ahead of those numbers amid optimism over U.S.-China trade talks following reports that President Donald Trump may extend the tariff truce with Beijing by another 60 days if a trade deal appears near, Bloomberg News reported.

Trump has described talks, among the biggest concerns for market participants, as going “very well.” However, some observers are expecting only a limited trade deal to come to fruition, particularly if a March deadline isn’t extended.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Trump will sign a spending bill to keep the government open but will also declare a national emergency at the border. Trump had previously indicated that he will use emergency declaration to build a wall along the southern border.

Earlier, reports on Japanese gross domestic product matched market expectations, while Chinese exports and imports were better than expected, as German growth numbers stagnated, painting a mixed picture of the state of the international economy.

The U.S. producer-price index fell by 0.1% in January, lower than the 0.1% increase expected by economist polled by MarketWatch.

Business inventories dropped 0.1% in November, according to a report delayed by the partial government shutdown.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,159.01.

The projected upper bound is: 7,781.08.

The projected lower bound is: 7,076.69.

The projected closing price is: 7,428.88.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.8912. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 34 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

NASDAQ COMPOSITE closed up 6.577 at 7,426.955. Volume was 14% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 29% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
7,390.2517,454.4207,375.7077,426.955 529,293,024

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,354.52 6,991.79 7,463.91
Volatility: 14 33 25
Volume: 533,369,568 613,686,656 564,205,504

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

NASDAQ COMPOSITE is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .IXIC at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .IXIC and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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