Mixed UK data and Brexit uncertainties didn’t prevent the British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X)

Mixed UK data and Brexit uncertainties didn’t prevent the British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X)

Mixed UK data and Brexit uncertainties didn’t prevent the British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X)

Mixed UK data and Brexit uncertainties didn’t prevent the British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate from extending its recovery attempts today, as Pound investors reacted with optimism to some stats while the US Dollar’s strength was limited by optimism surrounding US-China trade developments. 

Last week saw GBP/USD trending largely with a downside bias. The pair opened the week at the level of 1.2935 before tumbling and touching a monthly low of 1.2776 on Thursday. GBP/USD recovered at the end of the week and closed at the level of 1.2893. 

This week so far, GBP/USD has recovered more of last week’s losses. On Tuesday, the Pound was able to put in a more solid advance and at the time of writing the pair was trending near the level of 1.2978. 

The Pound found some support in Tuesday’s UK job market stats, while the US Dollar was mixed amid a lack of fresh strong US data as well as lasting risk-sentiment on US-China trade hopes. 

The US Dollar is likely to keep firming as markets anticipate Wednesday’s session, when the Federal Reserve is due to publish its latest meeting minutes report. 

As US data has been a little more mixed in recent weeks, if the Fed takes a more cautious tone than expected the US Dollar could be in for weak performance. 

On the other hand though, if the Fed minutes are more hawkish the US Dollar could see stronger demand. 

Wednesday will also see the publication of Britain’s February industrial trends orders report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). 

The data is not expected to be particularly influential however, and Pound investors will remain focused on potential Brexit developments. 

Pound to US Dollar exchange rate traders may also react to upcoming developments in US-China trade negotiations. 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.29.

The projected closing price is: 1.31.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.6861. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 121.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX GBP= closed unchanged at 1.306. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 2% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.306 1.307 1.306 1.306 5,600

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.29 1.28 1.30
Volatility: 9 10 10
Volume: 142,698 164,005 177,326

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX GBP= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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