Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) RM4 per US dollar To Come

Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) RM4 per US dollar To Come

Expectations for the currency to gradually strengthen towards RM4 per US dollar over the next one to two years. Until then, the ringgit is expected to range bound between 4.20 and 4.30 against the greenback at least through 2017.

What’s interesting about the ringgit is two parts: first, its sensitivity to the broad movements of the US dollar, whereas Malaysia was (earlier) faced with the challenge of a strengthening US dollar. But our view is that the US dollar may actually soften a little, so that will take away one big headwind for the ringgit.
The second part is the intrinsic ringgit factors – the ringgit is still as about as inexpensive as it has been since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, so it will take a lot of new bad news to push the ringgit lower from here.

Overall Malaysian assets are quite attractive, and investors are getting the opportunity to buy them with a currency that is currently quite cheap.

Technical Analysis

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 4.31.

The projected lower bound is: 4.27.

The projected closing price is: 4.29.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.5136. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 6. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX MYR= closed down -0.003 at 4.293. Volume was 39% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 49% narrower than normal.

Open   High    Low     Close  Volume
4.292   4.294   4.292  4.293  23

Technical Outlook
Short Term:                Neutral
Intermediate Term:  Bullish
Long Term:                 Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period   50-period   200-period
Close:                       4.29             4.29             4.37
Volatility:                1                    3                  4
Volume:                   29                39                40

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX MYR= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of MYR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on MYR= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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Ivy Heffernan

Ivy Heffernan, student of Economics at Buckingham University. Junior Analyst at HeffX and experienced marketing director.

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