Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (MYRUSD) Inflation & Trading Technical Analysis

Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (MYRUSD) Inflation & Trading Technical Analysis

Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (MYRUSD) Inflation & Trading Technical Analysis

Highlights

*Malaysia Inflation Rate Highest In Over 8 Years

*Inflation set to accelerate and average 3%-4% on oil prices

*Gross domestic product is forecast to expand 4.3 percent to 4.8 percent this year

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 4.38.

The projected upper bound is: 4.37.

The projected lower bound is: 4.32.

The projected closing price is: 4.34.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX MYR=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.3909. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX MYR= closed up 0.010 at 4.345. Volume was 65% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 149% wider than normal.

Open   High    Low     Close   Volume
4.334   4.346   4.334  4.345   49

Technical Outlook
Short Term:                Neutral
Intermediate Term:  Bearish
Long Term:                 Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period    200-period
Close:                       4.34             4.41               4.32
Volatility:                4                   3                    6
Volume:                  49                 36                  66

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX MYR= is currently 0.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of MYR= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on MYR= and have had this outlook for the last 36 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.