Lots of “Fast Growth” Ahead for the US Economy
Economists and pundits daily nay-say President Donald Trump’s economic agenda and forecast of 3% growth as fantasy.
The consensus is that the economy “can’t possibly grow at 3%,” according to The Wall Street Journal.
“Slow growth is the new norm, so get used to it,” wrote Rucir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, in Foreign Affairs magazine this month.
The Big Q: Why does anyone listen to economists?
Almost everyone in the economics field has bought into the Keynesian idea that massive government spending (QE’s) would revive the economy after the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
The trillions of dollars of government borrowing here and abroad created a decade-long anemic recovery.
The number of jobs created under President Barack Hussein Obama’s stimulus turned out to be fewer than the number we would have had if the government had done nothing, that according to The Obama Admin’s own analysis.
So, now we got $9-T of debt with virtually nothing to pay for it.
Recall at every Hussein Obama budget forecast that annual growth would reach 3.5 to 4.5%.
Bullish growth was just around the corner.
Do you recall Joe Biden’s “Recovery Summer” tour?
Below is how the Bullish forecasts matched up with reality, as follows:
- In Y 2009 they said we would get growth up to 4.6%.
- In Y 2010 they said we would get growth of 4.3%.
- In Y 2011 they said we would get growth of 4.4%.
- In Y 2012 they said we would get growth of 4.1%.
- In Y 2013 they said we would get growth of 3.6%.
- In Y 2014 they said we would get growth of 3.4%.
Friends, we never got growth above 3% under Mr. Hussein Obama, and the average growth was 2%, ending at 1.6%. The reality, on average, about 1.5% below the projection, that is an 80% overestimate of growth.
The Key reason for no growth, they say, is that we have so many millions of baby boomers retiring.
Hang on, we have 100% people over the age of 16 outside the labor force today or unemployed, and that is a giant labor pool to get workers from.
These people are young.
This is a huge pool of workers we could tap into, that is if Washington would stop spending $1-T a year paying people not to work.
For much of America The Hussein Obama Era has been a long Recession, not a long recovery. America is suffering from a major growth deficit. The economy is $3-T behind where it should be because of the shallow recovery.
Now, the US economy is set up for a Boom, not a bust.
Triggering the boom
We are keenly aware that every policy during The Hussein Obama Era was anti-growth: tax increases; minimum-wage hikes; Barack Obamacare; Dodd-Frank regulations; massive debt spending; the Paris climate change accord; an EPA assault against American energy; massive expansions of food-stamps programs and more.
If President Trump reverses the pattern of those failed policies, especially by getting tax rates down, I believe that 3 to 4% growth is achievable, and the Tea Leaf reading economists will be wrong again.
Tuesday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -61.85 at 21467.14, NAS Comp-50.98 at 6188.00, S&P 500 -16.43 at 2437.03
Volume: Trade on the NYSE was moderate to light with 813-M/shares exchanging hands.
- NAS Comp +15.0% YTD
- S&P 500 +8.9% YTD
- DJIA +8.6% YTD
- Russell 2000 +3.4% YTD
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.34)||Neutral (0.23)||Bullish (0.38)||Bullish (0.43)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.40)||Neutral (0.23)||Bullish (0.40)||Very Bullish (0.58)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.29)||Neutral (0.01)||Bullish (0.27)||Very Bullish (0.58)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bearish (-0.35)||Bearish (-0.36)||Bearish (-0.39)||Bearish (-0.29)|
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