Life After Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)
The hardest part of investing is knowing when to sell a stock. When you do buy one, always have an exit strategy—not for right away, this quarter, this year or even the next few years. But constantly question how soon the seeds of destruction will bloom at your company. I guarantee they’ve been planted already.
Let’s probe Apple , Facebook , Amazon and Google, because they make up about 12% of the S&P 500—while representing almost all of the stock-market’s gains this year. Yes, calls to break them up persist. But that actually could increase their enterprise value based on the sum of the parts. Beyond rambunctious regulators, what could go wrong?
The bad seeds at Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are more elusive. Alphabet has three key strengths: search, search and search. It offers free services based on a global but centrally controlled infrastructure of servers situated near waterfalls (for cheap electricity). From this network it sells relevant ads, often when you are most ready to buy something. The company will be tough to knock out. Even the move to mobile went well, as 1.3 billion phones based on the Android operating system shipped last year. Ad-blocker software on phones is a near-term danger, but I had a tough time finding an existential threat to the company’s high-margin hegemony.
My friend the futurist George Gilder outlines a theory in “Life After Google,” his forthcoming book. He suggests that while advertising prices might be correct, the free-service model cannot deliver sustainable growth. Mr. Gilder explains that Google “achieved unprecedented scale by a commitment to ‘free.’ But free flow is not cash flow. It bypasses the entrepreneurial learning that is conveyed through the remorseless messaging of price. Without prices, all that is left to confine consumption is the scarcity of time. Beyond the scores of hours a week for its smartphone customers, time is closing in on Google.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 1,233.42.
The projected lower bound is: 1,150.80.
The projected closing price is: 1,192.11.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.6967. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 172.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
ALPHABET INC C closed up 5.340 at 1,188.820. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,144.35 1,113.61 1,069.09
Volatility: 24 24 29
Volume: 1,057,556 1,403,647 1,602,960
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
ALPHABET INC C is currently 11.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GOOG.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GOOG.O and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.