ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke before a European Parliament Committee on Monday, and her speech touched on the high value of the euro. EUR/USD is up 6.6% since June 1st, as the euro has taken full advantage of a retreating US dollar. Although the dollar recovered ground last week, ECB policymakers remain deeply concerned about the high exchange rate.
Lagarde noted the strong euro in her remarks on Monday, when she said that one of the reasons that the eurozone is showing deflation is due to the currency’s high value. Lagarde said that the ECB would continue to monitor the euro’s strength, but did not elaborate on any moves the central bank might make if the euro continued to appreciate. A strong euro has also made European exports more expensive on world markets, which is hampering the eurozone’s economic recovery. Lagarde will address an ECB conference on Wednesday, and it will be interesting to see if she again makes reference to the value of the euro in her remarks.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.19.
The projected lower bound is: 1.16.
The projected closing price is: 1.17.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A bearish harami occurred (where the current small black body is contained within an unusually large white body). During an uptrend this pattern implies an end to the rally as the bulls appear to have exhausted themselves.
During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=) the bearish harami pattern is bullish as the bulls appear to be gaining strength as the bears weaken.
An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX EUR=) it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.2271. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 30 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.174. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.174 1.176 1.173 1.174 7,198
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.17 1.18 1.12 Volatility: 7 7 9 Volume: 103,161 98,961 100,901
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.
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