Key Stock Market Indicators are Still Bullish
The last 3 weeks this Bull market has be consolidating and base building for the next leg North extending The Trump Rally.
Last week at appeared that The Bull turned got a bit anxious as Irma threatened Florida after Harvey swamped the Texas Gulf along with some anxiety about tensions with NKorea.
The media got Noisy about federal debt ceiling to boot.
Democratic leaders said Wednesday night they struck a deal with President Donald Trump to protect DACA recipients via legislation, the White House insisted that the agreement did not exclude the border Wall.
That all faded last Wednesday, when US President Donald Trump cut a deal with congressional Democrats to raise the ceiling for 3 months, agreed to provide emergency funds for Texas and Florida, and made it clear that he is read to release “Fire & Fury” on NKorea now.
When nothing happened then the risk off investors , turned into risk back on investors, and show their appreciation and prodded The Bull.
Notably, none of my Key technical indicators turned from Overall Bullish to even Neutral, much less Bearish over that frame.
Below are some of the fundamentals that continue to drive this Bull market North, as follows:
- Fundamental Indicators. Key fundamental indicators edged down when the month began, but remains in record-high territory.
- Win/Lose Indicator has been rising in record-high territory since late October 2016, The Trump Effect. The commodity index has been moving higher recently, led by Gold, Silver and Copper and the fall in .DXY).
- Consumer Comfort rose at the end of August to a 16-year high. This index has been correlated with the S&P 500 forward P/E since Y 1995. Hello, when consumers are happy, investors are often willing to pay more for earnings.
- Analysts’ (like me) consensus expectations for S&P 500 revenues are stable in here, with current estimates implying a gainer of 5.0% in Y 2018, following 5.6% this year.
- Analysts are raising their Y’s 2017 and 2018 revenues estimates for S&P 400/600 since the start of Y 2017.
- Forward earnings of the S&P 500/400/600 are trending higher in record-high territory. MTD forward earnings for the S&P 500/400 rose to record highs.
- Forward profit margin was 11.0% at the end of August for the S&P 500, near recent record-high readings. The margin for the S&P 400 remains near its cyclical high at 6.7%.
Note: the S&P 600 SmallCaps are lagging, actually falling a bit, so except them to catch up and The Bull in healthy, but needs a healthy pause to refresh, aka pullback, as The Trump Rally extends.
Remember, always take what the market gives.
Wednesday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +39.32 at 22159.48, NAS Comp +5.91 at 6460.16, S&P 500 +1.89 at 2499.82
Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at: 824-M/shares exchanged
- NAS Comp +20.0% YTD
- DJIA +12.1% YTD
- S&P 500 +11.6% YTD
- Russell 2000 +5.1% YTD
The DIA, SPY and QQQ are Overall Bullish, the VXX is Over all Bearish
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.40)||Bullish (0.40)||Bullish (0.40)||Bullish (0.42)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.25)||Bullish (0.29)||Bullish (0.29)||Neutral (0.17)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.31)||Neutral (0.19)||Bullish (0.40)||Bullish (0.35)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bearish (-0.47)||Bearish (-0.42)||Bearish (-0.40)||Very Bearish (-0.58)|
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