Keeping Records? This is the Longest Bull Market in Stocks on Record

Keeping Records? This is the Longest Bull Market in Stocks on Record

Keeping Records? This is the Longest Bull Market in Stocks on Record

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX

Are you 1 of us who keeps good records? Well thank take some time Wednesday and look up some old 401(k) or mutual fund statements, then check your balance on 9 March 2009.

The difference from then and now is your piece of the longest Bull market in history. The major stock indexes have risen steadily without a 20% correction since they bottomed on 9 March 2009 precisely at 1:00p EDT

Marking Wednesday, the stock market Bulls will have been running longer than they have ever done.

Here is a look at stock Bull Markets since Y 1949
Years Length in Months
1949-56 86
1957-61 50
1962-66 44
1966-68 26
1970-73 32
1974-80 74
1982-87 60
1987-90 31
1990-2000 114
2002-07 60
2009-18 114

Today, Stock prices are a bit above average when measured against profits, but profits are rising rapidly. Interest rates also remain low, so other investments like bonds are not as attractive.

Stock Markets do not roll over because they are old, and we here at HeffX-LTN would not be surprise if the stock market continues without a 20% correction for the next 5 years.

The Big Q: What would bring the Bears out of hibernation?

The Big As: Not Turkey’s currency crisis, it seems less consequential than the Greek debt crisis of a few years ago, and not at global trade war because the US’ major trading partners, China, EU, Mexico and Canada are aligning with President Trump’s America First! policy,

Now investors are betting that the trade dispute well in the hands of the Trump White House, and their attention is focused on profits, which have been boosted by a combination of tax cuts and a strengthening economy.

Earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index climbed 12% last year and are expected to grow 21% this year, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet. That us well above average for a Bull Market that might well be Aged Beef.

The Key element people are looking for is just how long profits can keep growing a such a strong pace.

The FactSet projection shows 10% growth in Y 2019, but it is a fact the financial analysts are often too optimistic when looking out further than 12 months.

If double-digit profit growth appears likely by next Spring, this may become the King Kong of Bull markets, setting a record that might not be matched for generations to come.

On the other hand, if companies ring in the New Year by issuing grim profit guidance, this Bull market may decide to pasture.

All of us in this game know that a Bear market can happen quickly and quicker than most people realize.

US stock prices have 4X’d since March 2009 and stocks now represent 40% of households’ financial assets, well above the long-term average of 28%, and it could be a mark where a small shock could reverse the positive sentiment and wake up Mr. Bear.

Meanwhile, always take what the market gives and stay tuned.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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