Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) yen dips, consumer data ahead

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) yen dips, consumer data ahead

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) yen dips, consumer data ahead

USD/JPY has edged higher on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.32, down 0.28% on the day. On the release front, there are no Japanese indicators. In the U.S., the trade deficit narrowed to $51.1 billion, better than expected. On Thursday, the U.S. releases Final GDP and unemployment claims. Japan will publish Tokyo Core CPI and retail sales.

The nasty trade war between the U.S. and China has hit Japan hard, as both countries are major trading partners with Japan. The weaker global climate has resulted in weaker demand for Japanese exports, and there are growing concerns that the fragile economy could be heading for a recession. Earlier in the week, the BoJ released the summary of opinions from the March policy meeting. Policymakers debated whether to ramp up stimulus in order to boost growth. Inflation levels remain sluggish, and the scheduled tax hike in October, which is certain weigh on growth, poses another headache for policymakers.

Japan’s economy remains fragile, with exports down due to the global trade war. BoJ policymakers remain nervous, and the summary of opinions from the March policy meeting indicated that members debated whether to ramp up stimulus in order to boost the economy. There are concerns that the economy could be heading towards a recession, given the weak global climate and the tax hike scheduled for October.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.56.

The projected lower bound is: 109.54.

The projected closing price is: 110.55.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.1958. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.01. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 58 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.100 at 110.520. Volume was 12% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 18% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.630 110.700 110.220 110.520 111,936

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.84 110.49 111.44
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 96,814 95,472 104,400

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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