Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) will continue to see a lot of back-and-forth grinding

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) will continue to see a lot of back-and-forth grinding

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) will continue to see a lot of back-and-forth grinding

The US dollar has pulled back a bit against the Japanese yen initially during the trading session on Monday but has found a bit of buying at the 50 day EMA. That’s a technically significant event, and if we can stay above there, then the market could go towards the 200 day EMA. That coincides nicely with the major breakdown candle stick that sent the market down towards the ¥105 level.

Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite and therefore you should be paying attention to stock markets and of course other risk assets around the world. The S&P 500 is my favorite secondary indicator for this pair, so how it behaves typically this pair will behave as well as the Japanese yen is such a safety currency for traders.

Looking at the chart, I believe that we probably continue to drift a little bit lower longer term, but a short-term bounce certainly can’t be ruled out as it’s quite common to see the market bounce around between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA.

Ultimately, this is a market that will probably chop around as we try to figure out where were going next, not only with the US/China trade situation, but global growth in general. Market participants continue to show signs of confusion, and that of course will show itself in this market as well. With this, the market is likely to bounce around between the two moving averages in the short term. Longer-term, I still anticipate that it’s likely we could go down to the ¥170 level.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.00.

The projected lower bound is: 106.11.

The projected closing price is: 107.56.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.6646. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.030 at 107.570. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 19% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.530 107.580 107.530 107.570 344
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.93 107.07 109.23
Volatility: 5 9 7
Volume: 84,939 91,198 91,557

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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