Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) will continue to monitor the direction of U.S. Treasury yields

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) will continue to monitor the direction of U.S. Treasury yields

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) will continue to monitor the direction of U.S. Treasury yields

Dollar/Yen traders will continue to monitor the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and appetite for risky assets. If both continue to rise then the Forex pair should move higher although buyers could run into resistance at 111.940 and 112.137.

The price action is likely to continue to be influenced by U.S.-China trade relations and U.S. economic news.

There are no major reports from Japan this week, but investors will get the opportunity to react to major economic reports from the U.S. including the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index and the Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting minutes. A slew of FOMC Members are also scheduled to speak.

Traders will be paying particular attention to the CPI data especially because of the dip in U.S. Average Hourly Wages. The economy may be holding steady, but the Fed isn’t likely to switch gears to hawkish again if inflation continues to decline.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.77.

The projected lower bound is: 110.78.

The projected closing price is: 111.77.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.3853. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 65 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 117.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.080 at 111.730. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.640 111.810 111.580 111.730 95,221

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.00 110.73 111.48
Volatility: 4 6 7
Volume: 99,082 95,157 104,135

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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