Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Volatility continues

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Volatility continues

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Volatility continues

After a listless start to the week, USD/JPY has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In Tuesday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 110.56, up 0.54% on the day. In the U.S., economic data disappointed. Building permits slowed to 1.30 million, shy of the estimate of 1.32 million. CB consumer confidence fell sharply to 124.1, well below the estimate of 132.1 points. In Japan, BoJ Core CPI, dropped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% in the previous release.

Japan’s economy remains fragile, with exports down due to the global trade war. BoJ policymakers remain nervous, and the summary of opinions from the March policy meeting indicated that members debated whether to ramp up stimulus in order to boost the economy. There are concerns that the economy could be heading towards a recession, given the weak global climate and the tax hike scheduled for October.

The Federal Reserve has become more dovish, leaving investors in a glum mood. At last week’s meeting, policymakers indicated they had no plans to raise interest rates in 2019 and also lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December. There was more bad news on Friday, as the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes turned negative for the first time since 2007, pointing to an inverted yield curve. All eyes will be on U.S. Final GDP, which will be released on Thursday. If GDP is weaker than expected, investors could lose their risk apetite and the safe-haven yen could get a boost.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.54.

The projected lower bound is: 109.52.

The projected closing price is: 110.53.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.6430. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 57 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -103.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.540 at 110.490. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 19% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.960 110.680 109.920 110.490 95,262

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.89 110.46 111.44
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 94,178 95,156 104,283

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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