Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) very sensitive to risk appetite globally
The US dollar rallied significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see money flowed into the US dollar overall. However, this is a bit of a wrist sensitive currency pair, so keep in mind that the pair very often will move right along with the S&P 500 and other stock markets in America. As the stock markets have outperform so many others, it makes quite a bit of sense that we continue to see the US dollar strengthening.
Beyond that, there are a lot of headlines out there that have the markets somewhat jittery to say the least. If that’s going to be the case, you should keep in mind that this won’t necessarily be a “one way shot”, at least not that easy. There is a gap above that I think is going to be filled at the ¥111.15 level, and I do believe that’s the destination. That doesn’t mean there will be the occasional pullback, because we know there’s more than enough out there to have the markets a bit nervous. However, the ¥110 level should now be thought of as a bit of the support barrier, and therefore as long as we can stay above there you’re probably going to be better off looking for short-term buying opportunities.
If we were to break down below the ¥110 level, then the ¥109 level would be tested for support. Breaking below there would change the entire attitude of the market so keep in mind we need to hold that for my thesis to continue.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.66.
The projected upper bound is: 111.44.
The projected lower bound is: 109.49.
The projected closing price is: 110.47.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A gravestone doji occurred. This often signifies a top (the longer the upper shadow, the more bearish the signal).
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.4830. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 110.480. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 34% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
110.470 110.520 110.470 110.480 1,718
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.91 111.02 111.42
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 83,239 86,907 100,435
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.
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