Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US dollar volatile during Thursday session against Japanese yen
The US dollar reached above the ¥108 level, but then pulled back a bit as we have suddenly seeing a wall of worry when it comes to this trend. Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to the stock markets and risk appetite in general, and after the ECB announcement it seems like people are still all over the place.
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we initially popped above the ¥108 level, but then pulled back again. Quite frankly, this market is all over the place and probably a bit stretched to the upside. This isn’t to say that we are suddenly going to collapse, but without a doubt we are going to need to pay attention to risk appetite overall and follow as such.
The S&P 500 is an excellent proxy for fear and greed, so pay attention to that as it could lead the way. All things being equal this is a market that I think it’s probably due for a bit of a pullback but ultimately the ¥107 level should be supportive as it was previous resistance. All things being equal though, I think we continue to see a lot of choppy action, and even if we did rally from here I suspect that the black 200 day EMA will offer significant resistance. All things being equal at this point I think what we are going to see is a very nauseatingly volatile situation.
It is probably best left alone at this point, because the market is obviously at an inflection point. We are overextended so I would prefer to the downside but I think even that is somewhat limited unless we get some type of exhaustive market move. If the S&P 500 falls apart then we may be able to break down below the ¥107 level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 109.52.
The projected lower bound is: 106.61.
The projected closing price is: 108.06.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.7135. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 136.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 108.070. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.080 108.150 108.050 108.070 1,777
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 107.11 107.14 109.42
Volatility: 5 9 7
Volume: 83,650 88,439 92,247
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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