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Friday, July 23, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Struggles Against Safety Currency

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Struggles Against Safety Currency

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back the gains as it looks like we are seeing a lot of trouble right around the ¥107.50 level. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to go lower due to the fact there is a major “risk off” attitude with the initial jobless claims coming out as horrifically as they have. That being said, rallies could occur in short covering, but I think those short covering rallies that show signs of exhaustion should be sold into.

A breakdown below the lows of the Wednesday session could send this market down towards the 160 and level, followed by the ¥105 level. In fact, I don’t really have an interest in buying this pair, but I do recognize that it is somewhat “neutral” as we are simply thrashing around in order to try to find some type of equilibrium.

It’s very possible it might be in this general vicinity based upon the last couple of swings that we have seen. Nonetheless, this is a market that continues to be very noisy and I think that’s probably going to be the way going forward.

Quite frankly, we are moving on the most recent headline, which of course involves the virus, jobs numbers, and a whole host of other things. Keep your position size small but recognize that there are some opportunities here and there. I suspect you are probably going to be better served waiting until the close of business on Friday to make some type of decision based upon a weekly candlestick to be honest though.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.39.

The projected lower bound is: 104.52.

The projected closing price is: 107.95.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.0774. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.080 at 107.980. Volume was 63% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 140% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.900 108.200 107.790 107.980 37,618
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.94 108.74 108.32
Volatility: 13 21 12
Volume: 152,312 125,624 95,608

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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