Home FX Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Stabilizes Against Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Stabilizes Against Japanese Yen

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Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Stabilizes Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar has rallied slightly against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday, in what was a relatively quiet day. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to see a lot of choppiness, but at this point I think it makes quite a bit of sense to simply consolidate in the same range that we have been in. That range is clearly defined by the 108.33 level on the bottom and the 109.60 level on the top. If we could somehow break above the 110 level, then it should send this market much higher and I think longer-term that might be the move. However, that level has been extraordinarily stingy, so it’s probably going to take some type of strong economic announcement or a major “risk on” type of move to make it happen.

To the downside, if we can break down below the 108 level it’s likely that we will fall much further. I don’t expect to see that happen anytime soon though, so at this point it’s likely that we will have more of the same, simply bouncing around in this rectangle that we are trying to form. When trading these types of markets, one has to assume that “they will stay the same until they don’t.” I realize that’s not necessarily insightful, but you would be amazed at how many traders forget that. At this point, I think there’s more of an upward bias but clearly we need some type of catalyst to get moving higher.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.37.

The projected lower bound is: 107.70.

The projected closing price is: 108.54.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.0507. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 103 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -121.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 108.540. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.550 108.570 108.540 108.540 51
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.04 108.95 108.66
Volatility: 4 5 6
Volume: 48,548 76,024 86,611

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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