Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Rockets Higher Against Japanese Yen During The Week
The US dollar has rallied against the Japanese yen during the week, breaking above the 200 week EMA. That’s a good sign, and for that matter we have even broken above the 110 level which of course is a large round figure. With that in mind, I like the idea of buying on dips, but I recognize that this will be a somewhat choppy affair, because quite frankly the volatility has been sucked right out of the Forex markets as of late.
We need some type of catalyst to get the market going, and although we get the US/China trade deal which led to this big move, we still need to see some type of reason to celebrate. After all, this is a pair that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so that should be kept in the back of your mind. Having said that, it also works in the other direction, if the risk appetite falls drastically, it’s very likely that this pair will fall back through the ¥110 level and go looking towards the ¥109 level. With that, we have a couple of parameters the watch, but I think at this point looks very likely that we will go looking to retrace 100% of the most recent move, meaning that we could go as high as the ¥112.50 level. Cautious optimism is probably the best way to describe this pair as we continue to see slow but upward momentum.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.07.
The projected upper bound is: 110.88.
The projected lower bound is: 109.26.
The projected closing price is: 110.07.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.8125. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 114 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.090 at 110.050. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 34% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
110.140 110.140 110.020 110.050 1,588
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.66 109.10 108.54
Volatility: 5 5 6
Volume: 75,775 76,008 86,503
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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