Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Recovers Against Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Recovers Against Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Recovers Against Yen

The US dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday, to reach down toward support again near the ¥108.50 level. We have since bounced after the stronger than anticipated jobs number, and therefore it looks as if the markets are ready to form the so-called “golden cross” when the 50 day EMA crosses above the 200 day EMA. This is a very bullish sign for longer-term traders and therefore it looks like we may finally have a serious go at the resistance above.

The great thing about this set up is that there is an obvious barrier above that if we can break through should send this market much higher. The ¥110 level is an area that getting broken will signal that the pair is ready to go much higher, and it should be noted that there are several other yen related pairs that have already broken out. It’s only a matter of time before this one follows, and therefore one should be paying attention to other pair such as NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, and the like. As they rise, this will put upward pressure on this pair as well.

With this, I like buying short-term pullbacks, and I do believe that eventually we get the ability to break out and go towards the ¥111 level where there is a small gap, and then eventually the ¥112.50 level which is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. I have no interest in shorting this pair, it seems to be far too supported going forward. Remember, it’s also very risk sensitive, it seems that it’s most certainly “risk on” at the moment.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.52.

The projected lower bound is: 107.76.

The projected closing price is: 108.64.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.7004. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.040 at 108.630. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.670 108.670 108.600 108.630 725
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.00 108.54 108.84
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 75,642 86,419 89,409

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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