Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Recovers After Initial Fall

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Recovers After Initial Fall

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Recovers After Initial Fall

The US dollar initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday but then turned around to show signs of strength. The ¥108 level is going to offer a bit of resistance, and so will the 200 day EMA which sits just above there. The 50 day EMA is trying to cross below there, as it shows the potential “death cross.” At this point, it’s very likely that the market will continue to see a lot of noise in that area, and quite frankly at this point there is a bit of an argument between US dollar strength, and the risk appetite of traders.

The pair does tend to fall when there’s a lot of risk aversion out there, but there is so much dollar demand that it is starting to affect how this pair trades. Longer-term though, I think we have rallied far too quickly, and it’s only a matter of time before we rollover. We don’t have a signal yet, so I will look for it on a daily chart, which I don’t have at this point. Because of this, I will patiently wait for that opportunity, but until we get the signal I will be doing very much in this pair because it is now starting to slow down a bit. It’s a matter of waiting for the right signal to get involved in the market, something that we just don’t have quite yet. If we broke down below the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, that might entice me into shorting.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.18.

The projected upper bound is: 111.31.

The projected lower bound is: 105.14.

The projected closing price is: 108.22.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.0528. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.190 at 108.250. Volume was 88% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 212% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.050 108.290 107.837 108.250 11,565
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.02 108.85 108.24
Volatility: 36 19 11
Volume: 148,778 105,003 91,296

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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