Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Rallies Into Resistance
The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the ¥110 level, an area that will have a certain amount of psychological resistance built into it. If we can break that level, then it’s likely that we go looking to fill the gap at the ¥111 level, and then eventually the ¥112.50 level which is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. We are trying to break out for a bigger move based upon a “risk on” appetite, and I do think that happens given enough time due to the fact that other risk related currency pairs are starting to show the same thing.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.74.
The projected upper bound is: 110.43.
The projected lower bound is: 108.83.
The projected closing price is: 109.63.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.4724. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.61. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 97 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.260 at 109.610. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
109.330 109.680 109.310 109.610 69,553
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.44 108.92 108.70
Volatility: 2 5 7
Volume: 66,759 81,665 88,428
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.
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