Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – Us Dollar Gets Crushed Against Japanese Yen And Safety Bid
The US dollar has been crushed against most currencies around the world during the trading session on Monday, and especially against the Japanese yen as it is without a doubt the best performer globally. This as markets are falling apart, and at this point it’s likely that the Japanese yen will continue to attract a certain amount of attention, but at this point it is most certainly in oversold pair. I think at this point it’s very likely that any type of rally will be looked at with suspicion. Don’t be wrong, it does not mean that the market can bounce, just that it probably won’t be able to hang on to the gains until we get some significant structural changes.
At this point, the ¥100 level could very well be the target but it’s going to be difficult to imagine a scenario where the Bank of Japan doesn’t get involved sooner or later. If and when they do, that could create a massive turnaround in the short term. The Bank of Japan does have a history of intervening closer to the ¥100 level, so at this point it’s an area that you need to keep in mind. In the short term, any rally towards the gap from the opening of the session, near the ¥105 level, will be thought of as potential selling opportunities. If we can clear that area to the upside, then it’s very likely that we go to the ¥107.50 level or we will see the next target of sellers to get involved. One thing is for sure, the “risk off” attitude has just accelerated.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.07.
The projected upper bound is: 104.19.
The projected lower bound is: 100.16.
The projected closing price is: 102.17.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.9629. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 19.25. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -162.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.040 at 102.300. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 381% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
102.360 102.400 102.230 102.300 623
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 106.71 109.06 108.28
Volatility: 18 12 8
Volume: 123,648 91,885 88,556
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 5.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that JPY= is currently in an oversold condition.
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