Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Explodes to The Upside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Explodes to The Upside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Explodes to The Upside

The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the ¥107.50 level. At this point, the market has seen a lot of selling pressure in this area and I think that we may run out of steam here. Furthermore, I can also make an argument for the 200 day EMA above offering an opportunity for sellers to get involved into as well. I believe that the market is more or less more short covering than anything else, and of course there is hope that fiscal stimulus will start to kick the economy back in the right direction. At this point in time, we are still waiting to see what happens to the response of the United States government, so at this point it’s very likely that the markets will probably either get the news late on Friday, or over the weekend. This could lead to a massive gap either higher or lower.

Ironically, if we can get some type of fiscal stimulus coming out the United States, it might actually work in favor the US dollar in this pair as the Japanese yen is such a major safety currency. At this point in time though, if the market doesn’t get that we may see the US dollar fall to the Japanese yen and it will probably cause chaos Monday morning. Unfortunately, all I can do is point out that the ¥107.50 level should offer a bit of resistance so it’s worth paying attention to.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.19.

The projected upper bound is: 109.63.

The projected lower bound is: 103.80.

The projected closing price is: 106.72.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.7784. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -1.160 at 106.750. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 297% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.910 107.910 106.550 106.750 1,494
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 105.79 108.93 108.25
Volatility: 35 17 10
Volume: 138,682 101,302 90,148

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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