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Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Drifts Lower Against Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Drifts Lower Against Yen

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but ran into a bit of trouble above the ¥111 level as the Federal Reserve has announced a buying program of expanded assets. At this point, the market is starting to look a little overextended anyway, so you see a bit of a pullback would make some sense. Nonetheless, the ¥112 level above is very resistive from a longer-term standpoint, so it should not be surprised that the market could not simply smash through it. Having said that, I do think that it is only a matter of time before we make a serious attempt at it. This will be especially true if the US dollar continues to be in such demand.

To the downside, I would think that the ¥108 level would be an area where there should be a certain amount of support based upon the 200 day EMA if nothing else. Having said that though, I also recognize that if we get some type of panic run towards the Japanese yen, then this pair could fall. However, I would suggest that if you see this pair starting to fall with any type of momentum, you may be better served shorting some of the other yen crosses such as the NZD/JPY pair, or even the GBP/JPY pair. If nothing else, you can use this chart as a barometer for the Japanese yen itself.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 113.82.

The projected lower bound is: 107.24.

The projected closing price is: 110.53.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.2642. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.38. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 119.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.680 at 110.520. Volume was 77% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 197% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
111.200 111.280 110.510 110.520 21,868
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.19 108.96 108.28
Volatility: 28 20 11
Volume: 151,260 110,736 92,600

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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