Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Continues to Trade On Fear

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Continues to Trade On Fear

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Continues to Trade On Fear

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday, as we are now below the ¥105 level again. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to dance around the gap that had formed. The ¥104.20 level is an area that has offered slight support but it’s likely that we break down below there if the fiscal stimulus isn’t strong enough to appease market participants. Ultimately, even if we do rally from here, I suspect that there is a significant amount of resistance near the ¥107.50 level where even more selling will come into play. Because of this, it’s simply a matter of looking for “value” in the Japanese yen

If the market breaks down below the ¥104 level, then it opens up the door to a move down towards the ¥101.50 level again. All things being equal, this looks a lot like 2008, but it is probably a bit much to ask to make that connection as the issues are completely different. While that crisis was a financial crisis, the reality is that this one is about health and the movement of people around the world. Ultimately, the pair is a measure of risk appetite, so therefore it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the market suddenly takes out to the upside and keeps those gains. Quite frankly, I think that there will be plenty of opportunities to sell from higher levels if Steve Mnuchin comes out with some type of fiscal plan that the markets like. After all, fiscal stimulus isn’t going to help public gatherings continue.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.19.

The projected upper bound is: 107.04.

The projected lower bound is: 102.02.

The projected closing price is: 104.53.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.5637. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.080 at 104.610. Volume was 84% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 336% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
104.550 106.080 103.080 104.610 166,118
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 105.96 108.96 108.26
Volatility: 29 15 10
Volume: 149,530 101,169 90,221

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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