Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Continues To Rally Against Safety Currency Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Continues To Rally Against Safety Currency Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Continues To Rally Against Safety Currency Japanese Yen

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday, as more of a “risk on” move has come back into play. After the tensions in the Middle East settled down, traders began to look for a way to benefit from the bullish markets overall. Ultimately though, there is a lot of resistance at the ¥109.60 level, so if we could break above there and then perhaps even reach towards the ¥110 level, then we could have something rather interesting to get involved in. At that point, the market very likely would go looking towards the ¥111 level, and then eventually the ¥112.50 level. On the other hand, we could always pull back.

At this point, if the market was the pullback from here it’s likely that the ¥108 level will offer a significant amount of support, and with the jobs number coming out for Friday, it’s likely that the market will have a lot of volatility. Unless of course it is some type of major shock to the system, any pullback should find plenty of buyers. Whether or not we can break out above the resistance is a completely different conversation, but it certainly shows that the market is trying to build up the necessary momentum. All things being equal, I am much more comfortable buying dips that I am trying to get involved in the breakout, but if were to get a daily close above the ¥110 level, then I would be willing to start buying. At this point, I think you have to assume that the short-term range holds.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 110.37.

The projected lower bound is: 108.67.

The projected closing price is: 109.52.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.2661. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 107 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.370 at 109.490. Volume was 3% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
109.110 109.570 109.000 109.490 87,501
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.76 108.96 108.60
Volatility: 7 5 7
Volume: 73,897 79,179 87,098

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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