Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US dollar continues to churn against Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US dollar continues to churn against Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US dollar continues to churn against Yen

The US dollar has initially fallen during the trading session on Wednesday, only to turn around to rally against the Japanese yen. Quite frankly, there’s a lot of noise out there involving the US/China trade situation, and perhaps a little bit of hope as enter the market based upon a potential partial deal.

If you believe in rumors, the US/China trade situation should be the way you like to trade. Quite frankly, they have suggested that the Chinese were willing to take a partial deal, perhaps buying more soybeans. That being said, there’s been more of a “risk on feel” to the earlier hours of trading on Wednesday, but American negotiators have already suggested that this isn’t going to happen. Certainly Donald Trump has no interest in signing that partial deal, as he wants to see comprehensive deals being done. This won’t happen this week, so it’s only a matter of time before this market fails.

The ¥107 level continues to be important in and of itself, but at this point the market has tested the 50 day EMA during the trading session, an area that has caused resistance of the last couple of days. If the market were to break above the ¥107.50 level, then the market could go looking towards the ¥108.50 level. That is an area that features the 200 day EMA and therefore it’s likely that as we see signs of exhaustion as we approach it. That being said though, we are more likely to see sellers continue to fade this market as there are plenty of “risk off” potential headlines out there just waiting to happen. Ultimately, once this week ends, then people will be paying attention to earnings season in the United States.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 108.91.

The projected lower bound is: 105.96.

The projected closing price is: 107.43.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.6315. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 41 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.390 at 107.460. Volume was 2% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.070 107.620 106.920 107.460 89,004
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.43 106.89 109.06
Volatility: 5 9 7
Volume: 91,279 95,906 92,015

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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