Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Choppy Against Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Choppy Against Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Choppy Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar has been all over the place against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday, as Japan went back to work after the Emperor’s birthday. That being said, the market is struggling to determine whether or not the US dollar is the safety currency, or if the Japanese yen is serving that function right now. Ultimately, this is a little bit different than the usual dynamic, because the more afraid that the markets become, the more likely they are to run away from the Japanese yen as the coronavirus is the main reason. Ultimately, if we get more of a “risk on” move, this pair also breaks higher in my estimation.

At this point, the ¥110 level is what I look at as the “fair value level” as far as the longer-term trading is concerned as the ¥105 level underneath is the support level, while the ¥115 level above is the resistance barrier. This means that the market will continue to be attracted to the ¥110 level, and therefore a bit of a pullback may not be that surprising, but I would anticipate that there seems to be a lot of interest and demand down at the ¥110 level. Another thing to pay attention to is the 10 year note in the United States, which is reaching historic lows as far as yield is concerned, meaning that there is a lot of demand for safety out there. That does drive up the value of the US dollar, so ultimately I still favor the upside on the whole.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.57.

The projected upper bound is: 111.64.

The projected lower bound is: 109.24.

The projected closing price is: 110.44.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.0233. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.240 at 110.420. Volume was 51% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 85% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
110.190 110.700 110.120 110.420 123,735
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 110.56 109.59 108.40
Volatility: 11 7 7
Volume: 98,808 80,880 87,444

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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