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Monday, July 26, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Attempts to Continue Move Higher Against Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) – US Dollar Attempts to Continue Move Higher Against Yen

The US dollar has broken higher during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the candlestick that was so neutral and interesting on Monday. This suggests that we could go higher but we are also seeing a bit of the selloff as the Americans come into play. At this point, I think what this dictates is that we are going to continue to see a lot of volatility and there’s no two ways about it. Ultimately, the market is more likely to see wild swings so you should keep your position size relatively small.

The pair of course reacts to the risk appetite of traders around the world, which is undoubtedly going to be all over the place. I think given enough time, we probably see this market have violent swings and therefore one can only be cautious when trading this market.

If we can close the daily candlestick above the ¥108.75 level, then I suspect that we will grind it towards the highs again, closer to the ¥111 level. However, if we close at 107.50 or lower, we very well could drop towards the ¥105 level given enough time. I would be a bit cautious, but I do think it’s only a matter of time before the market has to make its decision. We are essentially at “fair value” at the moment between the massive support at ¥105 and the massive resistance at the ¥111 region. Because of this, there is a lot of “push pull” when it comes to the marketplace.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.13.

The projected lower bound is: 104.29.

The projected closing price is: 107.71.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.3782. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.220 at 107.750. Volume was 51% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 161% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.530 107.940 107.230 107.750 49,481
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.57 108.81 108.32
Volatility: 20 20 12
Volume: 153,493 122,236 94,927

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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