Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) uptrend renewed with the recent break through 111.50

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) uptrend renewed with the recent break through 111.50

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) uptrend renewed with the recent break through 111.50

The Japanese yen has edged higher in the Thursday session, erasing the losses seen on Wednesday. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 111.26, down 0.38% on the day. On the release front, Japanese retail sales dropped to 1.8%, but still beat the estimate of 1.5%.

Later in the day, Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, with a forecast of 0.8%. In the U.S, Core PCE Price Index edged up to 0.2%, while Personal Spending remained pegged at 0.4%. Both of these indicators matched the estimates. Unemployment claims rose to 213 thousand, just below the forecast of 214 thousand.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.15.

The projected lower bound is: 109.91.

The projected closing price is: 111.03.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=) this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.

During an uptrend the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.0258. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 31 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.050 at 111.010. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 42% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.970 111.060 110.940 111.010 712

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.93 111.14 109.81
Volatility: 7 6 8
Volume: 97,028 103,361 105,828

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.

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