Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) upside capped by fears of a global economic slowdown

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) upside capped by fears of a global economic slowdown

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) upside capped by fears of a global economic slowdown

The Dollar/Yen closed lower on Friday as extreme weakness in the global equity markets encouraged investors to seek shelter in the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Sellers hit the equity markets hard early in the session following the release of weaker-than-expected retail sales and industrial production from China. Later in the session, poor Euro Zone data contributed to a second round of selling pressure.

On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 113.394, down 0.281 or -0.19%.

Last week, the USD/JPY settled higher three out of five sessions, primarily led by a reversal to the upside in U.S. equity markets. However, Dollar/Yen gains were capped late in the week as U.S. stock markets weakened.

Position-squaring ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday and Thursday’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways

The projected upper bound is: 114.45.

The projected lower bound is: 112.25.

The projected closing price is: 113.35.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.1784. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 52 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 113.350. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
113.310 113.360 113.300 113.350 841

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.17 113.00 110.79
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 112,971 116,888 107,490

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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