Home Asia Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) unable to sustain a rally

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) unable to sustain a rally


Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) unable to sustain a rally

USD/JPY reinstated its southerly trajectory on Tuesday following a run to the upside that occurred in Asia with follow through in European markets. The pair was capped at 108.80 and resumed back to the top of the hourly cloud and support, albeit, currently trading below short term trendline support est. 7th and 10th June. 

Federal Reserve Chair Powell recently stressed that the central bank was “closely monitoring” the impact of trade tensions on the US economy.  However, the general consensus is that trade relations will get back on track, but until Xi and Trump meet at the G20 later this month, its anyone’s guess. Instead, the markets will focus more so on data and the Fed. Indeed, any further evidence that rising global headwinds are adversely impacting US domestic demand would intensify pressure on the Fed to cut rates, possibly this summer. 

Meanwhile, sentiment has indeed improved as major global centalbanks turn more accommodative, (bar the BoE that has turned up with a more hawkish rhetoric). However, while that is beneficial to risk, and therefore troublesome for the yen, the dollar is also suffering from the sentiment given that the Fed-related support that the dollar had enjoyed for so long ha snow been swept away from beneath it. 

CPI ahead of Fed next week

We are now in a media blackout period ahead of the Fed decision next week, so the majority of the bets have been laid and priced into the dollar, with partial market expectations for a Fed cut, perhaps as soon as this meeting around.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.99.

The projected upper bound is: 109.45.

The projected lower bound is: 107.46.

The projected closing price is: 108.45.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.4686. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.080 at 108.510. Volume was 1% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 38% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.430 108.790 108.340 108.510 90,545

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.56 110.43 111.27
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 99,185 88,553 100,016

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.

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