Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) U.S. yield curve inverted

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) U.S. yield curve inverted

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) U.S. yield curve inverted

The euro gained on Monday as a stronger-than-forecast German business confidence survey allayed some fears about a recession and pulled the safe-haven yen from a six-week high against the dollar.

Financial markets around the globe were roiled on Friday, stemming from anxiety about an economic downturn after the U.S. yield curve inverted, with the 10-year yield dropping below the three-month bill rate. Those fears stoked a dumping of stocks and other growth-oriented assets and a rush into the yen, gold, U.S. and German government debt and other perceived low-risk investments.

A yield curve inversion has preceded every U.S. recession in the past 50 years.

They also buoyed the euro, which rose 0.2 percent to a session-high of $1.13315. Against the yen, the single currency at one point surged 0.46 percent to a high of $124.81, having traded as low as 123.875 earlier.

It is unclear whether the mild bounce in the euro and emerging market currencies will be sustained as traders remain wary with the U.S. yield curve inversion persisting for a second trading session, analysts said. “I wouldn’t say the dash for safe assets is over. The tone of general risk-off sentiment will prevail for a while but not to the same extent (as Friday),” Commerzbank strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann said, noting a recession was unlikely in the near term in the euro zone or the United States.

As for the greenback, it was 0.15 percent lower against a basket of currencies. It did not react much to U.S. Attorney General William Barr’s announcement that U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of collusion between Russia and President Donald Trump’s 2016 election campaign team.

The dollar was little changed at 109.935 yen after the yen hit a six-week high of 109.7 per dollar earlier on Monday.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.01.

The projected lower bound is: 109.00.

The projected closing price is: 110.01.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.5092. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 56 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -197.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.060 at 109.970. Volume was 9% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.840 110.230 109.700 109.970 91,687

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.98 110.42 111.44
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 94,452 95,405 104,386

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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