Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) turns negative after being unable to break 108.30

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) turns negative after being unable to break 108.30

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) turns negative after being unable to break 108.30

The USD/JPY pair dropped below Asian session lows and fell to 108.04. As of writing it was trading at 108.05/10 with the negative tone intact. Earlier today, the pair was unable to break above the 108.30 area that became a strong resistance. 

The move lower took place amid a decline in US yields and also as equity prices in Wall Street extended losses. The 10-year yield fell to 2.07%, the lowest since July 11. The DOW JONES was falling 0.15% and the NASDAQ 0.17%. 

Another driver was the decline of the US Dollar over the last hours across the board. The DXY was falling 0.18% at 97.20, trimming one-third of yesterday’s gains. 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 108.97.

The projected lower bound is: 106.78.

The projected closing price is: 107.87.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.7046. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 107.910. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
107.940 107.990 107.850 107.910 4,450

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.28 108.60 110.67
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 69,674 87,949 97,472

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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